EUR/USD Weekly Analysis for Dec. 17th – 21st.

My bullish intuition with price last week seemed to play out as the week progressed. My plan was to look for a bullish signal around the 1.2820 level. Price found support about 55 pips above this level at 1.28759. This was the 50% fib retracement zone from November 13th to December 5th. My thought was big money might run stops and then reverse price, but none the less price action signaled a turn up and never looked back all week. My thoughts for the upcoming week initially take me to trend lines, fibonacci extension zones, and a bit of Elliot Wave Analysis. I see price extended and overbought on the daily, 4hr, and 1 hour charts. Price clearly broke and closed above a major weekly TL. I am counting that price is in a fifth wave from an EW viewpoint. I’m not completely sold on wave five being over. I am counting three clear waves on a 5 minute chart and it appears we are in the fourth wave of five. So with this I expect we will see another stairway up to test the 1.320/25 resistance level. Once I count five clear waves on a 5 minute chart upwards I will consider this wave five finished and would anticipate a pull back to test the 1.3075/308 support level. If this is correct I would not expect price to move lower below 1.30658. If price breaks 1.30658 then I will reconsider my view and target 1.305/300 level support. So if price forms a bullish pattern in the vicinity of 1.3075/308 I will be all about the long and target 1.330 for the week. There is a chance we might be back in the same spot this time next week, but remember if price catches a bid at 1.3075/308 it will be in the beginnings of a wave three of wave five and I would expect impulsive waves to push price up relatively quickly. Price has some resistance in the 1.320/325 zone via TL resistance and 118% and 127% fib extensions. Also, once price reaches 1.3300 it will encounter the 1.382% fib extension along with the big monthly 20 SMA. I believe the range is set for the upcoming week. If price breaks the 1.30658 level support I will post another approach for the later part of the week. As I said I don’t anticipate this but I will react to whatever price gives me.