Sunday, December 9, 2012

Longer term Outlook for EUR/USD



Looking at the Monthly chart it appears price is in the beginnings of a longer term uptrend. Price has not yet confirmed this, but there are little signs I will pay close attention too. Price broke a major weekly TL and has returned to test this line forming a continuation pin bar in November. Now after the first week of December has printed I noticed a weekly pin bar has formed. Also, going down to a Daily chart, Friday’s close formed a bullish pin bar at a daily level of support. So based on this observation, here is how I will look to trade given proper entry signals at key levels.

I am going to look for price to test the 1.3054 level which is the midpoint of the weekly pin bar reversal. I will enter a short position on a proper set up entry. My stop will be above 1.3130 and my target is going to be 1.2820. Now 1.2820 to me will be a key level of support. If price breaks this level ( which is the midpoint of the bullish monthly pin bars lower wick) then I see a test of the the weekly pin bar low at 1.26608. Once again 1.26608 is a major level where I will watch closely for a signal either lower or higher (double bottom) signal. A break of 1.26601 will open the way for a test of the 1.2325 monthly TL support and horizontal support.

I am leaning more towards a bullish entry signal to jump on at the 1.2820 level. This decision is based on the monthly TL break. I expect this to hold, but I am not completely married to it. I have learned to keep an open mind to price and it telling me what to do. I will target 1.3836 level which is horizontal resistance and TL resistance.





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